Friday, August 14, 2009

Low Economic Data Bring Dollar Fall


Yesterday`s trades were marked with a series of worse than expected economic reports. The U.S Retails Sales indicator dropped by 0.1% in July breaking all economists` expectations. The index was expected to rise by 1.8%. The U.S Core Retails Sales index also performed an unexpected drop of 0.6%. The negative data proved o show that Americans are not likely to expend their spending.


Retail sales shows the level of consumer spending so it is treated as a consumer demand and consumer confidence indicator, it may serve as a reference point for the currency market during reversal points of the economic cycle. This index is highly important for following the USA economy, as consumer demand is its main driving force. As a result the US currency reacted immediately. The Dollar dropped against all the Forex currencies. The greenback lose 100 pips at against the EUR on Thursday. The bearish trend against JPY continued.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

EUR Goes on Falling against the Yen

Yesterday the EUR performed a record 1.9% loss against the Japanese Yen. The reason of such a decline appeared to be negative data from German consumer prices in July raising opinions that the ECB will maintain interest rates at a record low till the end of the year. The EUR traded $1.4154 from $1.4142 late Monday and was at 135.74 yen, down from 137.32.

The British equity market movements tend to have major affects on the Pound`s value. Even more, Forex traders are staying cautious ahead of today's BOE inflation announcement. Looking ahead to today`s events from the U.K which will likely impact the Pound for the rest of the week with the Claimant Count Change to be released at 8:30 GMT. The Euro-Zone Industrial Production report is also set to be announced at 9:00 GMT, negative results will likely put further downside pressure on the EUR.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Dollar Extends its Gains against the EUR and Pound


Yesterday`s trades were marked with USD appreciation versus European currencies such as EUR and GBP. Monday the Dollar Index, showing the Dollar position against 6 most traded currencies performed an increase of 0.4% hitting a 79.31, second consecutive week`s rise. Last week the index added 0.8 percent. Adding to the Dollar gains yesterday was the increased speculation that in the long run, the U.S. economy will probably grow at a faster pace than the Euro-Zone, Britain and Japan.


The USD's bullishness vs. the EUR continued yesterday. The rate reached its low at 1.4130 level. GBP/USD pair ended trades with a massive drop by 235 pips hitting the low of 1.6475 as a result of British banking woes revived.


Among today business events many news will come from the US economy including the release of Prelim Nonfarm Productivity and Prelim Unit Labor Costs data both at 12:30 GMT, and Wholesale Inventories at 14:00 GMT.

Monday, August 10, 2009

JPY Is the Week`s Loser

The last week`s major loser is considered to be the Yen, which suffered a lot after the release of America's Non-Farm Payroll data. The Japanese currency reached its year lows versus the EUR and GBP correspondently 138.69 and 163.08. The fall was also considerable against the Dollar as the pair hit the June`s low of 97.76.

As a result of the US NFP report, risk appetite of Forex traders rose sharply. With a surprisingly heavy news week for the Japanese currency ahead of traders, the bearishness is likely to continue this week, since many are expecting positive results which may likely boost the appetite for risk in the market and thus put additional selling pressure on the Dollar and Yen.

Friday, August 7, 2009

New US−Specific Forex Regulations

The approval of Compliance Rule 2-43(b) became effective in November, 2008, but parts of the ruling are still being implemented over time to allow for changes to Forex trading software. This new regulation is made to protect the US retail Forex trader from practices that the NFA (National Futures Association) has determined have no economic benefit to the trader. According to the NFA, this type of hedging increases the customer's financial costs by doubling the expense of entering and exiting positions. In addition, if the trader holds positions overnight, the differences in the interest rate rollover evaluation will cost customers additional money over time if they are short high yield currencies.

The National Futures Association has a website that every customer should visit for more information about their broker. Any Forex broker that is an NFA member has to meet high standards including a large minimum capital requirement to carry out business. Customers should check to see if their US Forex broker is an NFA member, and if they have any past customer complaints by doing a Background Affiliation Status Information Center (BASIC) search.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Bullish Stock Market Sentiment Brings Dollar Decline

The US Dollar ended up yesterday`s trades at the lowest level for this year against the Euro. This decline was caused by decline in US equities and pessimistic services sector figures. The greenback also slid 0.2 percent versus the JPY reaching the level of 95.02 from Tuesday`s mark of 95.25.

The broad decline of the Dollar is spurred by rally of high yielding assets such as shares and commodities. As economists and experts of technical analysis stated the Dollar's inverse relationship with trader appetite for risky assets has reasserted itself in last weeks. The USD has also lost its position as equities started a strong global rally and investors rushed into assets perceived as higher yielding ones.

Optimistic figures from China and the US boosted investors to sell Dollars choosing for trade risky assets making it complicated for the Dollar to rally a lot.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Dollar Tumbles on Optimistic Manufacturing Data


The release of better than expected figures of ISM Manufacturing PMI brought the Dollar tumbling. The indicator reached its 11 month high of 48.9. It appears to be much higher than forecasted 46.4. The improvement in U.S. construction also added to optimism. Risk appetite grew on Monday bringing decline in demand for the greenback. The U.S. currency tumbled against all major Forex currencies as traders believe that the worst of recession is over expecting sooner growth. Therefore, the Dollar declined to its 7 month bottom.

The EUR/USD pair jumped to as high as 1.4444, before ending the trades at 1.4421 level the lowest rate for 7 months. The USD fell by about 250 pips vs. the British Pound to 1.6980. One of the only currencies that the Dollar appreciated against yesterday was the Yen. Among today`s economic events, forex traders can assume volatile market. The Dollar is expected to rise against its major currency counterparts. The traders are expecting for the release of Personal Spending and Personal Income data at 12:30 GMT, and the release of U.S. Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT.